As we move through mid-October 2024, the crypto market continues to be influenced by significant events.

Here’s a recap of the most important updates from October 13 and 14, along with potential market scenarios for the coming days.

Market Movers

Bitcoin's Price Surge:

Bitcoin saw a strong upward movement on October 12, reaching $64,327.

This surge was largely driven by the liquidation of over $43.97 million in short positions.

Another contributing factor is the lasting effects of the 2024 Bitcoin halving, which reduced miner rewards and introduced supply constraints.

Historically, Bitcoin halvings have led to long-term price increases as reduced supply meets rising demand.

FTX Bankruptcy Hearings:

The ongoing bankruptcy hearings of FTX have introduced an element of uncertainty into the market.

While the broader sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, the eventual outcomes of these legal proceedings could significantly impact centralized exchanges and user trust.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs:

Institutional demand for cryptocurrencies continues to grow, spurred by the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

These ETFs have made it easier for institutional investors to access Bitcoin, contributing to higher demand and helping support the recent price surge​

Real-Time Developments

Political Prediction Markets:

With the U.S. presidential election approaching, interest in political prediction markets is rising.

New platforms have been launched where users can bet on election outcomes, creating short-term market volatility.

Tokens tied to political prediction markets could experience rapid price movements as the election nears

Layer-2 Scaling Solutions:

The growing adoption of Layer-2 solutions, such as rollups on Ethereum, continues to influence the market positively.

New stacks like Arbitrum and Base are seeing substantial transaction volumes, which helps stabilize fees and increases network usage.

This trend highlights the growing importance of Layer-2 scaling for Ethereum and other smart contract platforms​.

Market Outlook and Potential Scenarios

With the market’s current trajectory, there are two primary scenarios that could unfold in the short term:

• Short-Term Correction: Due to overbought signals, particularly in Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI), a brief correction may occur. Investors should watch for a possible pullback, which could see Bitcoin retrace slightly before finding a new support level around the $60,000 mark.

• Long-Term Bullish Outlook: Despite the likelihood of short-term volatility, the long-term outlook remains positive. The effects of the Bitcoin halving, combined with increasing institutional demand driven by Bitcoin ETFs, are expected to drive prices higher in the coming months

The next few days will be crucial for the market as investors react to these developments.

As always, it’s essential to stay informed and ready for potential price fluctuations.

For more insights, keep an eye on the latest news and market indicators to adjust your strategies accordingly.