As we enter October 12, 2024, several crucial factors are shaping the crypto market.

From U.S. government Bitcoin sales to inflation data and China’s potential shift in crypto regulation, here's a breakdown of how these events could affect the market and what we can expect in the coming days.

U.S. Government Bitcoin Sales

The U.S. government is poised to sell 69,000 BTC confiscated from the Silk Road case.

This has raised concerns over an oversupply of Bitcoin, which could drive prices down.

Currently, Bitcoin is testing the critical $60,000 support level.

If this level is breached, prices could fall further, possibly touching $57,500.

The market is closely watching how much of this Bitcoin will enter the market, as this could significantly impact demand and prices in the short term.

U.S. CPI Report and Interest Rates

The release of the U.S. inflation data on October 10, 2024, has been another critical event affecting the market.

Inflation slightly eased from the previous month, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by the end of the year.

If this happens, it could provide a significant boost to Bitcoin and other riskier assets, driving prices toward $65,000.

On the flip side, if inflation remains stickier than expected, the Fed may delay rate cuts, potentially keeping pressure on the crypto market.

Potential Unban of Crypto in China

There have been ongoing rumors since 2022 that China may lift its ban on cryptocurrencies.

Although there has been no official statement, recent positive developments, such as Hong Kong's pro-crypto stance and favorable state media coverage, are fueling speculation.

A move from China to re-enter the crypto space could serve as a major bullish catalyst, potentially spiking demand for Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies​.

Impact of October 11, 2024 Events

Yesterday, October 11, the market faced some challenges:

• Bitcoin ETF Outflows: The U.S. Bitcoin-spot ETF market recorded net outflows of $57.7 million this month. These outflows are a negative sign for Bitcoin, reducing buyer demand and contributing to the price pressure​.

• Geopolitical Tensions: Rising tensions in the Middle East have caused some investors to pivot toward safer assets. This move away from riskier investments like cryptocurrencies has dampened demand and placed downward pressure on prices.

Technical Indicators and Market Predictions

Technical indicators suggest a mixed outlook for the market:

Relative Strength Index (RSI):

Bitcoin's RSI is approaching oversold territory, indicating that a further drop may occur before the price stabilizes.

A reading below 30 would signal that Bitcoin is oversold, potentially creating a buying opportunity​.

Moving Averages:

Bitcoin remains below its 50-day moving average, which is a bearish signal in the short term.

However, the price is still above the 200-day moving average, suggesting that long-term bullish momentum remains​.

Market Outlook Post-October 12

Moving forward, the market is likely to remain volatile. If Bitcoin breaks below the $60,000 support level, we could see a pullback to $57,500.

However, if inflation data leads to Federal Reserve rate cuts or if China signals a shift in its crypto policy, Bitcoin may push back toward $65,000.

For traders, this could mean watching for key support and resistance levels, using a mix of indicators such as RSI and moving averages to guide decisions.

Any news related to the U.S. government Bitcoin sales or further geopolitical developments will likely shape the market’s direction in the near term.

In conclusion, the next few days are critical for the crypto market. Traders should remain cautious but also be prepared to take advantage of potential dips or rallies based on these unfolding events.